Faculty Scholarship 1994 - Present

Why Economists Could Not Foresee the Global Financial Crisis? (Iktisatcilar Kuresel Krizi Neden Tahmin Edemedi?)

This paper analyzes trade liberalization?s impact on Bangladesh?s manufacturing sector performance. Using firm level input and output data and employing a nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA), we calculate technical, pure technical and allocative efficiencies for a sample of 82 firms collected over two periods of time: 1993 and 1998. Then, applying a Malmquist index method, we calculate indices of total factor productivity change and decompose them into technological change, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change. Our results show that the majority of Bangladeshi manufacturing firms experienced a positive total factor productivity growth between 1993 and 1998, averaging 29% over a five-year period. Export-oriented firms have performed better than import-oriented firms in improving their technical efficiency relative to the best-practice firms in their own sub-group.Whenthese results are compared with the official statistics on the output performance of manufacturing firms, we can conclude that trade liberalization in the 1990s did not adversely affect the Bangladeshi manufacturing industry.